· Analysis updated 18:53 UTC
Sama vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sama and 1.07 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Al Ahli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Sama and 1.07 for Al Ahli, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Sama
Al Ahli
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wihdat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama Al Sarhan · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Yarmouk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Hay Al Amir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sahl Horan SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Amman | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Ittihad Al Ramtha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sama Al Sarhan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sama | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Al Sareeh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Ma'an | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Tora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.