Sámano vs Barquereño Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Sámano and 0.69 for Barquereño, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Sámano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sámano win

77.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.57 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barquereño away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sámano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Sámano and 0.69 for Barquereño, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Sámano win78%

Draw14%

Barquereño win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–012.7%
3–010.8%
1–09.9%
2–18.8%
3–17.5%

Recent form

Sámano

Barquereño

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laredo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bezana · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torina · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Velarde · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sámano win, at 77.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.