Shamakhi City Stadium · Referee I. Mammadov · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Şamaxı FK vs Araz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.95 for Araz, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Şamaxı FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şamaxı FK win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Araz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şamaxı FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.95 for Araz, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Şamaxı FK
Araz
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Şamaxı FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şamaxı FK win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.