Shamakhi City Stadium · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.63 for Safa Baku, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Şamaxı FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Şamaxı FK win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa Baku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şamaxı FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.63 for Safa Baku, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Şamaxı FK
Safa Baku
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şamaxı FK win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.