Shamakhi City Stadium · Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Şamaxı FK vs Turan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.87 for Turan, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Şamaxı FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şamaxı FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.87 for Turan, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Şamaxı FK
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.