Samgurali vs Dila Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Samgurali and 1.63 for Dila, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Dila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dila win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Samgurali home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dila away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Samgurali and 1.63 for Dila, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Samgurali win31%

Draw24%

Dila win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–29.2%
0–18.7%
2–17.4%
0–27.1%

Recent form

Samgurali

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)

Dila

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Erovnuli Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rustavi	28	14	7	7	11	49
2	FC Iberia 1999	28	15	4	9	9	49
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Dinamo Batumi	27	13	8	6	10	47
5	Dila	28	12	4	12	6	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	27	9	9	9	9	36
7	Samgurali	27	9	5	13	-14	32
8	Gagra	27	6	11	10	-12	29
9	Spaeri	27	5	10	12	-9	25
10	Meshakhte	28	2	11	15	-25	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dila win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.