26 May Stadium · Referee B. Bregadze · Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Samgurali vs Rustavi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Samgurali and 1.68 for Rustavi, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rustavi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rustavi win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Samgurali home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rustavi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rustavi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Samgurali and 1.68 for Rustavi, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Samgurali
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-1 (D)
Rustavi
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 53 |
| 2 | Rustavi | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 51 |
| 5 | Dila | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -17 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 26 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rustavi win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.