· Analysis updated 08:28 UTC
Šamorín vs MŠK Senec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Šamorín and 0.99 for MŠK Senec, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Šamorín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Šamorín win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šamorín home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MŠK Senec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šamorín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Šamorín and 0.99 for MŠK Senec, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Šamorín
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Galanta · 3-2 (W)
MŠK Senec
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nové Zámky · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · Šamorín 7-0 MŠK Senec (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Šamorín win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.