· Analysis updated 09:10 UTC
Sampaio Correa FE U20 vs Portuguesa RJ U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sampaio Correa FE U20 and 0.77 for Portuguesa RJ U20, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Sampaio Correa FE U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sampaio Correa FE U20 win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sampaio Correa FE U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portuguesa RJ U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sampaio Correa FE U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 29% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sampaio Correa FE U20 and 0.77 for Portuguesa RJ U20, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Sampaio Correa FE U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Madureira U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-5 (L)
Portuguesa RJ U20
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangu U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Correa FE U20 2-1 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Correa FE U20 1-0 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-04-07T18:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Correa FE U20 1-1 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Copa Rio U20)
- 2024-07-20T17:45:00.000Z · Sampaio Correa FE U20 2-3 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sampaio Correa FE U20 win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.