Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sampaio Corrêa RJ and 1.03 for Nova Iguaçu, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Sampaio Corrêa RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sampaio Corrêa RJ home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nova Iguaçu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 71.7% | 72.8% | 1.37 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.1% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 71.7% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 56.6% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
- 2026-08-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Nova Iguaçu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs São Gonçalo EC RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs São Gonçalo EC RJ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Resende · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Resende · 1-0 (W)
Nova Iguaçu
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boavista SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Olaria · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T17:45:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0-2 Nova Iguaçu (Copa Rio)
- 2026-05-16T20:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-2 Nova Iguaçu (Serie D)
- 2026-04-25T22:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-0 Nova Iguaçu (Serie D)
- 2026-03-08T19:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0-2 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2026-02-23T23:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-1 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2026-01-15T20:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-3 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2025-01-15T21:30:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0-1 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2024-01-18T18:45:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-2 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2021-02-06T18:30:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0-1 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
- 2021-01-20T18:00:00.000Z · Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-2 Nova Iguaçu (Carioca - 1)
Copa Rio table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boavista SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nova Iguaçu | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Olaria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Madureira | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Pérolas Negras | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | América RJ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | CFRJ / Maricá | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Resende | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Bonsucesso | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Americano Campos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Portuguesa RJ | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | São Cristóvão RJ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | CEAC / Araruama | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serrano RJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Macaé | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Volta Redonda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Bangu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Cabofriense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Duque de Caxias | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 22 | Goytacaz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 23 | SE Belford Roxo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 24 | Santa Cruz RJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.