Samtredia vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Samtredia and 2.00 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives FC Iberia 1999 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Iberia 1999 win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Samtredia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Samtredia win29%

Draw22%

FC Iberia 1999 win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–29.1%
2–16.8%
2–26.8%
1–36.0%

Recent form

Samtredia

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 3-0 (W)

FC Iberia 1999

2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Samtredia 2-0 FC Iberia 1999 (David Kipiani Cup)
2024-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 1-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 0-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 2-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2023-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 0-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2023-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 0-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2023-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · Samtredia 0-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2023-03-18T11:30:00.000Z · Samtredia 3-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2021-12-04T09:30:00.000Z · Samtredia 1-5 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Iberia 1999 win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.