Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Samtredia vs Merani Martvili Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Samtredia and 1.20 for Merani Martvili, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Samtredia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Samtredia win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Samtredia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Merani Martvili away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samtredia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Samtredia and 1.20 for Merani Martvili, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Samtredia
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 3-0 (W)
Merani Martvili
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samtredia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Poti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gareji · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Samtredia win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.