Toyota Field · Referee B. Jensen · Analysis updated 01:28 UTC
San Antonio vs Louisville City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for San Antonio and 1.45 for Louisville City, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Louisville City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Louisville City win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Antonio home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Louisville City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Louisville City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for San Antonio and 1.45 for Louisville City, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
San Antonio
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs New Mexico United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 0-7 (L)
Louisville City
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Indy Eleven · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleston Battery · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartford Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartford Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Loudoun United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL League One Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Charleston Battery | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Boise | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | New Mexico United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | One Knoxville | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Brooklyn | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 19 | Lexington | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 20 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 21 | Detroit City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 22 | Alta | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 | Union Omaha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 24 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 | Sporting JAX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 31 | Loudoun United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 32 | Forward Madison | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 33 | Westchester SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 34 | Corpus Christi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 36 | NY Cosmos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 37 | Naples | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 38 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 39 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 40 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 41 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| 42 | Orange County SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Louisville City win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.