Toyota Field · Referee M. Kaleia · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
San Antonio vs New Mexico United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for San Antonio and 1.13 for New Mexico United, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives New Mexico United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Antonio home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New Mexico United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New Mexico United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for San Antonio and 1.13 for New Mexico United, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
San Antonio
- 2026-10-04T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 1-2 (L)
New Mexico United
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham Legion · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Indy Eleven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -41 | 14 |
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.