Estadio Carlos Ugalde Alvarez · Referee S. Madrigal · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
San Carlos vs Inter San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for San Carlos and 0.63 for Inter San Carlos, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives San Carlos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Carlos win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Carlos home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter San Carlos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Carlos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for San Carlos and 0.63 for Inter San Carlos, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.2%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
San Carlos
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Herediano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 1-0 (W)
Inter San Carlos
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Puntarenas FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Carlos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Perez Zeledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T21:00:00.000Z · San Carlos 0-2 Inter San Carlos (Primera División)
- 2024-08-07T21:00:00.000Z · San Carlos 4-1 Inter San Carlos (Copa Costa Rica)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Carlos win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.