Estadio Municipal San Clemente · Referee Pedro Díaz de Mera · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
San Clemente vs Almansa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for San Clemente and 1.38 for Almansa, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Almansa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Clemente home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almansa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for San Clemente and 1.38 for Almansa, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
San Clemente
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
Almansa
- 2022-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 3-0 (W)
- 2022-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 1-1 (D)
- 2022-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 1-0 (W)
- 2022-03-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hogar Alcarreño · 3-2 (W)
- 2022-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | CD Villa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Almansa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Tarancón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Clemente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Noblejas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Quintanar del Rey | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | La Solana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Villarrubia | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.