· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
San Clemente vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for San Clemente and 2.10 for Toledo, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Toledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Toledo win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Clemente home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toledo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toledo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for San Clemente and 2.10 for Toledo, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
San Clemente
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 0-4 (L)
Toledo
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toledo win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.