Snapdragon Stadium · Referee T. Ford · Analysis updated 08:04 UTC
San Diego vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for San Diego and 2.00 for FC Cincinnati, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives San Diego the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
San Diego win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Diego to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 18% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for San Diego and 2.00 for FC Cincinnati, a combined 4.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 80%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 52% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
San Diego
FC Cincinnati
- 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T23:45:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.