San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.17 for Denver Summit W, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives San Diego Wave W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Diego Wave W win

47.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Diego Wave W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Diego Wave W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.17 for Denver Summit W, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

San Diego Wave W win48%

Draw25%

Denver Summit W win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–010.0%
2–19.4%
2–08.1%
0–17.2%

Recent form

San Diego Wave W

2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)

Denver Summit W

2026-09-20T01:50:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Reign FC W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Angel City W · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T00:55:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 6-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	27	16	7	4	14	55
2	San Diego Wave W	27	16	3	8	12	51
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	12	46
4	Utah Royals W	27	14	4	9	9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	13	5	9	10	44
6	Angel City W	27	12	7	8	16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	12	7	8	6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	13	3	11	11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	12	4	11	1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	10	8	9	8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	10	3	14	-7	33
12	Houston Dash W	26	8	6	12	-4	30
13	Boston Legacy W	27	8	5	14	-10	29
14	Bay FC W	27	7	5	15	-14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	27	7	3	17	-16	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	5	2	20	-48	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Diego Wave W win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.