USA · NWSL Women · Group Stage02:00

11

Saturday, 15 August 2026

Snapdragon Stadium · Referee L. Aldrich · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC

San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.01 for Denver Summit W, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives San Diego Wave W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

San Diego Wave W to Win

46.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Diego Wave W win46%
Draw27%
Denver Summit W win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams to score48%

Correct score

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 0–08.9%
  • 2–18.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Denver Summit W away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates San Diego Wave W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.41 goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.01 for Denver Summit W, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

San Diego Wave W

    Denver Summit W

    • 2026-08-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Utah Royals W · 2-1 (W)
    • 2026-08-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Washington Spirit W · 0-1 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    NWSL Women table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1NJ/NY Gotham FC W2013431343
    2Utah Royals W2011361236
    3Washington Spirit W1911351236
    4San Diego Wave W201037433
    5Portland Thorns W19946431
    6North Carolina Courage W18936630
    7Kansas City W20938330
    8Seattle Reign FC W18837027
    9Angel City W17737724
    10Denver Summit W19667024
    11Orlando Pride W197210-623
    12Boston Legacy W19559-620
    13Houston Dash W18558-620
    14Bay FC W195410-719
    15Racing Louisville W185211-1117
    16Chicago Red Stars W194114-2513

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.