Stadio Comunale Pianigiani · Analysis updated 10:03 UTC
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for San Donato Tavarnelle and 0.86 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives San Donato Tavarnelle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Donato Tavarnelle win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Donato Tavarnelle home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Donato Tavarnelle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for San Donato Tavarnelle and 0.86 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
San Donato Tavarnelle
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gavorrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Terranuova Traiana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Robur Siena · 1-1 (D)
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Seravezza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Lucchese | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Flaminia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Donato Tavarnelle win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.