· Analysis updated 19:59 UTC
San Francisco FC vs CD Arabe Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for San Francisco FC and 1.28 for CD Arabe Unido, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives San Francisco FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Francisco FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CD Arabe Unido away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
San Francisco FC
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting San Miguelito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-1 (W)
CD Arabe Unido
- 2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Amador · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Francisco FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Cocle · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T01:30:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 1-2 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2026-03-14T01:30:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-1 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-09-27T01:30:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-2 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-03-23T01:15:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 3-1 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-08-25T21:00:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-0 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-02-24T21:00:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-0 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-09-23T23:15:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-2 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-03-25T21:00:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-0 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-08-20T21:00:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-2 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-03-09T01:00:00.000Z · San Francisco FC 0-0 CD Arabe Unido (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.