· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
San Giovanni vs Tre Penne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for San Giovanni and 1.93 for Tre Penne, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Tre Penne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tre Penne win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tre Penne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Penne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for San Giovanni and 1.93 for Tre Penne, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
San Giovanni
Tre Penne
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cailungo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Cosmos · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Cailungo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | San Giovanni | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Murata | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Pennarossa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 14 | Juvenes / Dogana | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tre Penne win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.