San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.03 for Austin, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

San Jose Earthquakes win

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Jose Earthquakes win63%

Draw20%

Austin win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–19.9%
2–09.7%
1–19.3%
1–09.1%
3–17.0%

Why the model likes this

San Jose Earthquakes home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Jose Earthquakes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.03 for Austin, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes

2026-08-16T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Cincinnati · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-26T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-04T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 1-2 (L)

Austin

2026-08-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	18	11	4	3	23	37
2	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	FC Dallas	19	8	6	5	8	30
6	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
7	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	19	7	3	9	-1	24
11	Seattle Sounders	18	7	3	8	-4	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	19	4	5	10	-15	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	Chicago Fire	18	10	2	6	10	32
4	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	19	7	5	7	6	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	Philadelphia Union	19	5	4	10	-7	19
14	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.