San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.06 for Los Angeles Galaxy, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

San Jose Earthquakes to Win

61.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Jose Earthquakes win61%

Draw20%

Los Angeles Galaxy win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.4%
2–09.3%
1–08.9%
3–17.0%

Why the model likes this

Los Angeles Galaxy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Jose Earthquakes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.06 for Los Angeles Galaxy, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes

Los Angeles Galaxy

2026-08-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T02:25:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	5	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	1	26
7	Charlotte	18	7	4	7	2	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	-10	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	-17	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	-2	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	-8	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	-11	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	3	3	12	-14	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.