Avaya Stadium · Referee Lorenzo Hernandez · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.07 for Portland Timbers, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Jose Earthquakes win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Jose Earthquakes home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Timbers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 49.3% vs market 32.7%, edge +16.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 32.7% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +16.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.4% | 46.6% | 2.15 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.8% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 53.4% | 1.87 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 27.8% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 67.3% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -16.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 3-2 (W)
Portland Timbers
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-05-24T01:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-02-11T23:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-06-14T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-21T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers (US Open Cup)
- 2025-05-04T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 4-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-02-05T20:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-06-20T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-16T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 2-4 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-02-14T19:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Jose Earthquakes win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.