USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 1902:30

1 – 3

Sunday, 16 August 2026

PayPal Park · Referee J. Freemon · Analysis updated 05:52 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.43 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Jose Earthquakes win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Jose Earthquakes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

San Jose Earthquakes win47%

Draw23%

St. Louis City win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.2%
1–27.2%
1–07.1%
2–26.6%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Match result	Away	3.20	29.3%	30.4%	3.29	+1.1
Goals	Under 3.5	1.62	58.1%	59.2%	1.69	+1.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.77	52.6%	53.2%	1.88	+0.6
Match result	Home	2.02	46.4%	46.8%	2.14	+0.4
Goals	Over 2.5	1.50	63.0%	63.0%	1.59	0.0
Goals	Under 2.5	2.55	37.0%	37.0%	2.70	-0.0
Both teams to score	No	2.55	36.3%	36.3%	2.75	0.0
Both teams to score	Yes	1.45	63.8%	63.7%	1.57	-0.1
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.33	69.9%	69.6%	1.44	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Away	1.20	77.5%	77.2%	1.30	-0.3
Goals	Over 3.5	2.25	41.9%	40.8%	2.45	-1.1
Match result	Draw	3.85	24.3%	22.8%	4.39	-1.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

San Jose Earthquakes

2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)

St. Louis City

2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2026-04-26T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 St. Louis City (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-09-22T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-04T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 0-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-25T02:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-03-19T00:30:00.000Z · San Jose Earthquakes 0-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Jose Earthquakes win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.