· Analysis updated 04:18 UTC
San Lorenzo Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.93 for Barracas Central Res., a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives San Lorenzo Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Lorenzo Res. win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Lorenzo Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barracas Central Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
San Lorenzo Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 0-2 (L)
Barracas Central Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Santa Fe Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-03-04T20:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 2-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-02-29T20:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 3-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-05-27T17:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-07-03T13:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-0 Barracas Central Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Lorenzo Res. win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.