San Lorenzo Res. vs Tigre Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.93 for Tigre Res., a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives San Lorenzo Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

San Lorenzo Res. win

54.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Lorenzo Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigre Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Lorenzo Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.93 for Tigre Res., a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

San Lorenzo Res. win54%

Draw25%

Tigre Res. win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–111.6%
2–010.4%
2–19.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

San Lorenzo Res.

2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 0-2 (L)

Tigre Res.

2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi Res. · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	14	10	3	1	20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	8	2	4	11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	7	4	3	10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	7	4	3	8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	7	4	3	1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	6	6	2	12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	6	6	2	5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	6	6	2	2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	5	8	1	9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	6	5	3	5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	6	4	4	2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	6	3	5	3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	5	6	3	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	6	2	6	2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	4	7	3	3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	4	7	3	2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	4	7	3	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	4	6	4	3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	3	8	3	4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	4	5	5	3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	4	5	5	-3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	4	5	5	-4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	3	7	4	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	3	6	5	-3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	3	5	6	-5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	2	7	5	-6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	3	4	7	-11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	3	2	9	-11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	1	7	6	-11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	0	7	7	-11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Lorenzo Res. win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.