· Analysis updated 05:54 UTC
San Lorenzo Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.77 for Unión Santa Fe Res., a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives San Lorenzo Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Lorenzo Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unión Santa Fe Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
San Lorenzo Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 0-2 (L)
Unión Santa Fe Res.
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-07T18:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-3 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-12-05T21:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 1-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-02-24T12:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 2-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 0-0 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo Res. 4-1 Unión Santa Fe Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.