Estadio Pedro Bidegain · Referee B. Amiconi · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for San Lorenzo and 0.74 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives San Lorenzo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.9% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Lorenzo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–09.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.44 | 64.5% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.08 | 88.1% | 89.1% | 1.12 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.7% | 57.5% | 1.74 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.7% | 25.2% | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 42.2% | 42.6% | 2.35 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.30 | 72.9% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.6% | 67.8% | 1.47 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 3.50 | 27.1% | 26.9% | 3.72 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 33.1% | 32.3% | 3.10 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.7% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 8.00 | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.17 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.62 | 35.5% | 34.2% | 2.92 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
San Lorenzo
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-17T21:45:00.000Z · San Lorenzo 1-1 Deportivo Riestra (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-03-25T22:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo 1-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-10-31T22:00:00.000Z · San Lorenzo 1-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-20T18:30:00.000Z · San Lorenzo 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-05-12T18:30:00.000Z · San Lorenzo 0-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.