San Lorenzo vs Lanus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.57 expected goals for San Lorenzo and 0.98 for Lanus, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Lanus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

79.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.57 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Lorenzo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lanus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lanus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 21% / 35% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.57 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.98 for Lanus, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

San Lorenzo win21%

Draw35%

Lanus win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals46%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

0–021.2%
0–120.8%
1–012.1%
1–111.9%
0–210.2%

Recent form

San Lorenzo

2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-1 (D)

Lanus

2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
5	Lanus	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Newells Old Boys	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Gimnasia M.	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Independiente	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
13	Platense	13	2	5	6	-7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	2	3	8	-8	9
1	Rosario Central	13	7	4	2	9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	6	4	3	4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	6	4	3	1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	River Plate	13	6	2	5	5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	13	5	4	4	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	3	5	5	-1	14
11	Tigre	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Banfield	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Racing Club	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	2	2	9	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.