San Marcial vs River Ebro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for San Marcial and 0.83 for River Ebro, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives San Marcial the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Marcial win

68.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Marcial home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
River Ebro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Marcial to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for San Marcial and 0.83 for River Ebro, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcial win69%

Draw19%

River Ebro win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.8%
1–010.7%
2–19.7%
1–18.8%
3–08.6%

Recent form

San Marcial

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Comillas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vianés · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguiano · 0-2 (L)

River Ebro

2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-7 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Marcial win, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.