San Marcos de Arica vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for San Marcos de Arica and 0.85 for D. Puerto Montt, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives San Marcos de Arica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

San Marcos de Arica win

54.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Marcos de Arica home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
D. Puerto Montt away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcos de Arica win55%

Draw25%

D. Puerto Montt win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–111.8%
2–011.0%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Recent form

San Marcos de Arica

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Copiapo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-2 (L)

D. Puerto Montt

2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 2-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2023-09-24T15:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2023-05-14T01:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 2-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2021-10-22T22:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2021-07-15T15:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 2-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2020-12-22T18:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2020-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-3 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2018-04-01T20:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	27	13	9	5	16	48
2	San Luis	26	13	8	5	12	47
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	12	8	7	21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	12	44
6	Recoleta	27	11	8	8	3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	10	9	8	6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	-2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	-8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	-16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	-14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	-28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	-19	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Marcos de Arica win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.