San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for San Marcos de Arica and 1.23 for San Luis, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives San Luis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Marcos de Arica home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Luis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcos de Arica win35%

Draw28%

San Luis win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.1%
1–010.7%
0–09.1%
1–28.0%

Recent form

San Marcos de Arica

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Copiapo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-2 (L)

San Luis

2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antofagasta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-06T00:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-1 San Luis (Primera B)
2025-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-1 San Luis (Primera B)
2025-05-24T00:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 2-1 San Luis (Primera B)
2024-10-13T20:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-1 San Luis (Primera B)
2024-05-28T00:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-0 San Luis (Primera B)
2023-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 3-2 San Luis (Primera B)
2023-03-20T23:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-0 San Luis (Primera B)
2021-10-08T22:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-2 San Luis (Primera B)
2021-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-0 San Luis (Primera B)
2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-2 San Luis (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Luis	28	15	8	5	14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	14	9	5	21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	13	8	7	15	47
4	Magallanes	28	13	7	8	4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	28	11	8	9	-2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	8	11	9	6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	10	5	13	-9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	4	11	13	-14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	5	8	15	-32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	5	6	17	-18	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.