San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for San Marcos de Arica and 0.73 for Union San Felipe, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives San Marcos de Arica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Marcos de Arica win

60.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Marcos de Arica home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union San Felipe away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Marcos de Arica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for San Marcos de Arica and 0.73 for Union San Felipe, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcos de Arica win60%

Draw24%

Union San Felipe win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.2%
2–012.7%
1–111.0%
2–19.2%
0–09.1%

Recent form

San Marcos de Arica

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Copiapo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-2 (L)

Union San Felipe

2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	22	54
2	San Luis	29	15	9	5	14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	16	50
4	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	29	11	9	9	-2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	-3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	-7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	-14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	-34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Marcos de Arica win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.