· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
San Marcos vs Academia Cantolao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for San Marcos and 2.37 for Academia Cantolao, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Academia Cantolao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Academia Cantolao win
77.2% probability
Expected goals
0.59 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Marcos home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Academia Cantolao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Academia Cantolao to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 7% / 15% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for San Marcos and 2.37 for Academia Cantolao, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.5%
- 0–112.3%
- 0–311.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
San Marcos
- 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-3 (L)
Academia Cantolao
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Binacional · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Academia Cantolao win, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.