· Analysis updated 23:25 UTC
San Marcos vs Matagalpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for San Marcos and 1.03 for Matagalpa, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives San Marcos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Marcos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for San Marcos and 1.03 for Matagalpa, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 72% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
San Marcos
Matagalpa
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.