· Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
San Marcos vs UNAN Managua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for San Marcos and 2.08 for UNAN Managua, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives UNAN Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UNAN Managua win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UNAN Managua away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNAN Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 16% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for San Marcos and 2.08 for UNAN Managua, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.7%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–37.4%
Recent form
San Marcos
UNAN Managua
- 2026-08-31T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UNAN Managua win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.