San Marcos vs UNAN Managua Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for San Marcos and 2.08 for UNAN Managua, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives UNAN Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.

Model pick

UNAN Managua to Win

63.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.93 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcos win16%

Draw20%

UNAN Managua win64%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–210.7%
0–110.3%
1–29.9%
1–19.6%
0–37.4%

Why the model likes this

San Marcos home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNAN Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 16% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for San Marcos and 2.08 for UNAN Managua, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

San Marcos

2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-02T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 0-3 (L)

UNAN Managua

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.