San Marino Stadium · Referee A. Kyriakos · Analysis updated 10:01 UTC
San Marino vs Faroe Islands Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for San Marino and 1.60 for Faroe Islands, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Faroe Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Faroe Islands win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Marino home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Faroe Islands away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Faroe Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for San Marino and 1.60 for Faroe Islands, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
San Marino
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Albania · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Albania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Finland · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 1-2 (L)
Faroe Islands
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Moldova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazakhstan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Latvia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marino · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Faroe Islands win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.