17 De Octubre · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
San Martin Formosa vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for San Martin Formosa and 0.80 for Sarmiento de La Banda, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives San Martin Formosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Martin Formosa win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martin Formosa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento de La Banda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
San Martin Formosa
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-0 (W)
Sarmiento de La Banda
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 3-0 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-2 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-10T19:30:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 4-2 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-1 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 1-0 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-06T21:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-1 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-0 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-06-30T18:30:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 1-1 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-05T01:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-1 Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Martin Formosa win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.