17 De Octubre · Analysis updated 04:44 UTC
San Martin Formosa vs Sol de América Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for San Martin Formosa and 0.85 for Sol de América, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives San Martin Formosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Martin Formosa win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martin Formosa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de América away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
San Martin Formosa
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-0 (W)
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 2-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-28T18:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 2-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-26T19:30:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 1-0 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-22T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 4-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 1-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-07-21T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 2-0 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-26T19:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-0 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-03-31T20:00:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 1-0 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-07-16T18:35:00.000Z · San Martin Formosa 0-1 Sol de América (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Martin Formosa win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.