Estadio General Jose de San Martin · Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
San Martín Mendoza vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.58 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives San Martín Mendoza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín Mendoza home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Circulo Deportivo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Mendoza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 35% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.58 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–020.7%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
San Martín Mendoza
- 2026-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-2 (L)
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 2-0 Circulo Deportivo (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-03T19:00:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 0-0 Circulo Deportivo (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 0-2 Circulo Deportivo (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.