Estadio General Jose de San Martin · Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
San Martín Mendoza vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.77 for Deportivo Rincon, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives San Martín Mendoza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín Mendoza home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Rincon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Mendoza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 35% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.77 for Deportivo Rincon, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.3%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
San Martín Mendoza
- 2026-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Rincon
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.