Estadio General Jose de San Martin · Analysis updated 21:20 UTC
San Martín Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.85 for Sol de Mayo, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives San Martín Mendoza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Martín Mendoza win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín Mendoza home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de Mayo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Mendoza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for San Martín Mendoza and 0.85 for Sol de Mayo, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
San Martín Mendoza
- 2026-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-2 (L)
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T00:15:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 2-1 Sol de Mayo (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 0-1 Sol de Mayo (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-08-18T18:30:00.000Z · San Martín Mendoza 4-1 Sol de Mayo (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Martín Mendoza win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.