· Analysis updated 18:07 UTC
San Martín San Juan Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 2.25 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Boca Juniors Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Juniors Res. win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín San Juan Res. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 8% / 17% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 2.25 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.0%
- 0–113.3%
- 0–311.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
Boca Juniors Res.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors Res. win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.