· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
San Martín San Juan Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.13 for Central Córdoba SdE Res., a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives San Martín San Juan Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín San Juan Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Córdoba SdE Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín San Juan Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.13 for Central Córdoba SdE Res., a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-1 (L)
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.