· Analysis updated 11:03 UTC
San Martín San Juan Res. vs Lanús Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.68 for Lanús Res., a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Lanús Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lanús Res. win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín San Juan Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lanús Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lanús Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.68 for Lanús Res., a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-1 (L)
Lanús Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes 2 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín San Juan Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield Res. · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lanús Res. win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.