· Analysis updated 00:00 UTC
San Martín San Juan Res. vs Quilmes 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.20 for Quilmes 2, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Quilmes 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Quilmes 2 win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín San Juan Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quilmes 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 25% / 30% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for San Martín San Juan Res. and 1.20 for Quilmes 2, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–29.7%
Recent form
San Martín San Juan Res.
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-1 (L)
Quilmes 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Quilmes 2 win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.