San Martin Tucuman vs Midland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for San Martin Tucuman and 1.13 for Midland, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Midland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Martin Tucuman home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Midland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Midland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for San Martin Tucuman and 1.13 for Midland, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

San Martin Tucuman win35%

Draw29%

Midland win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.3%
1–011.8%
0–010.8%
1–27.6%

Recent form

San Martin Tucuman

2026-10-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Midland · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Y Tiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Jujuy · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 2-4 (L)

Midland

2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Tristan Suarez · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Atlético Güemes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Chacarita Juniors · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	35	19	8	8	7	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	35	17	7	11	14	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	35	15	12	8	20	57
5	Colon Santa Fe	35	15	12	8	16	57
6	Almirante Brown	35	13	12	10	5	51
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	35	13	12	10	-1	51
8	CA Estudiantes	35	13	10	12	1	49
9	Chaco For Ever	35	11	10	14	0	43
10	Los Andes	35	9	15	11	1	42
11	Racing Cordoba	35	10	10	15	-11	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	All Boys	35	7	17	11	-9	38
15	San Telmo	35	9	11	15	-12	38
16	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	-8	37
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	35	16	15	4	18	63
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	11	51
7	Colegiales	35	14	9	12	4	51
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	35	11	13	11	2	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	35	12	10	13	-6	46
12	Quilmes	35	11	9	15	2	42
13	Almagro	35	11	9	15	-10	42
14	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.