· Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
San Martín vs Lealtad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for San Martín and 1.65 for Lealtad, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Lealtad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lealtad win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Martín home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lealtad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lealtad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for San Martín and 1.65 for Lealtad, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
San Martín
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Condal · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gijón Industrial · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 1-0 (W)
Lealtad
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Astorga · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Condal | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Siero | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Caudal | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Praviano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Gijón Industrial | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Lealtad | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Colunga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | San Martín | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Avilés Stadium | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Langreo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | L'Entregu | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Astur | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Llanes | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lealtad win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.